{"id":6549,"date":"2020-04-11T00:43:23","date_gmt":"2020-04-10T22:43:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sabado100.com.ar\/?p=6549"},"modified":"2020-04-11T00:43:23","modified_gmt":"2020-04-10T22:43:23","slug":"datos-sobre-la-pandemia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sabado100.com.ar\/es-ar\/datos-sobre-la-pandemia\/","title":{"rendered":"Datos sobre la pandemia"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/scontent.fsfn1-1.fna.fbcdn.net\/v\/t1.0-9\/93407226_2885582988190272_7244129683837550592_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&amp;_nc_sid=730e14&amp;_nc_ohc=GtBBc9ifDe0AX8BdyvB&amp;_nc_ht=scontent.fsfn1-1.fna&amp;oh=ab74bc0a0a567fbb6b884c680585b778&amp;oe=5EB6E99E\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Por Ad\u00e1n Costa.-<\/strong> Si pongo a un empleado en la puerta de una f\u00e1brica de autos a contar patentes de autos que salen de esa automotriz voy a tener un dato. Pero si pongo dos o tres o diez empleados a contar las patentes de autos no significa que por ese solo hecho voy a garantizar que se decuplique la salida de autos. Eso va a depender necesariamente de la capacidad productiva de la automotriz. Pensar este sencillo ejemplo viene a desterrar la falacia de una informaci\u00f3n que circul\u00f3 con fuerza por estos d\u00edas de pandemia. Se dijo, cuando se descentralice el test de covid-19 vamos a tener el conocimiento de una mayor cantidad de personas contagiadas. Error. La curva de crecimiento del contagio no va a depender de un test sino de la circulaci\u00f3n del virus y de las medidas que se tomen para contenerlo y la responsabilidad para cumplir con el aislamiento social. Esta explicaci\u00f3n sencilla nos sirve para parar la pelota y escuchar mejor el conjunto de las evidencias cient\u00edficas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jorge Aliaga es un cient\u00edfico que fuera decano de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas de la Universidad de Buenos Aires, y probablemente sea quien viene demostrando con mayor pertinencia la evoluci\u00f3n de la pandemia en la Argentina. Sus gr\u00e1ficos son de ineludible lectura para comprender cabalmente el fen\u00f3meno. Aliaga razona con la mente de un f\u00edsico. Lo complejo de este virus es que los n\u00fameros que vemos hoy, corresponden a lo que suced\u00eda unos 15 d\u00edas atr\u00e1s. Es el lapso que tarda el fen\u00f3meno en manifestarse: desde que tenemos los s\u00edntomas, llamamos a un m\u00e9dico, nos realizan el test, nos llegan los resultados del test y nos aislamos totalmente. El 25 de marzo Aliaga detect\u00f3 un quiebre en la progresi\u00f3n de la curva. Ya hab\u00edan transcurrido dos semanas desde que se hab\u00edan comenzado a suspender las primeras actividades, es decir, el 11 de marzo se decidi\u00f3 la cuarentena a viajeros, el 12 suspensi\u00f3n de espect\u00e1culos p\u00fablicos y el 16 el cierre de fronteras. Hasta el 25 de marzo la curva crec\u00eda a una tasa que multiplicaba por 10 los casos cada 10 d\u00edas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En ese momento ten\u00edamos 500 infectados, lo que significa que si continu\u00e1bamos a ese ritmo, diez d\u00edas despu\u00e9s \u00edbamos a tener 5 mil, otros diez d\u00edas despu\u00e9s ya ser\u00edan 50 mil y 10 d\u00edas despu\u00e9s 500 mil. Esta situaci\u00f3n es la que ocurri\u00f3 con Nueva York porque no prestaron atenci\u00f3n cuando hab\u00eda pocos contagiados. Y hoy est\u00e1n enterrando personas en fosas comunes en la isla de Hart, en el estado de Nueva York. Hay que pensar que en Argentina se tomaron las medidas cuando apenas ten\u00edamos 100 casos. Por eso, 10 d\u00edas despu\u00e9s no llegamos a tener mil. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Para la epidemia es fundamental tener la capacidad de leer el escenario 15 d\u00edas para adelante o 15 d\u00edas para atr\u00e1s, dependiendo si el prop\u00f3sito es proyectar el escenario futuro o comprender c\u00f3mo estamos hoy. Hoy la sociedad argentina y sus autoridades vienen escuchando muy bien la evidencia cient\u00edfica que nos va revelando el fen\u00f3meno, inesperado, letal y de escala mundial. Y tomando decisiones en ese sentido. A hoy, 10 de abril, la Argentina tiene solamente 1984 personas afectadas, infinitamente mucho m\u00e1s bajo si no se hubieran tomado las medidas de aislamiento social obligatorio, como ocurre en otros pa\u00edses denominados \u201ccentrales\u201d, como Italia, Estados Unidos o Inglaterra. Y tambi\u00e9n, lamentable e inexplicablemente en pa\u00edses de la regi\u00f3n, como el Brasil. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hoy se est\u00e1 entendiendo un poco mejor cuando se escucha decir que este es un gobierno de cient\u00edficos y no de \u201cceos\u201d. En otros tiempos de la Argentina, se enviaban a lavar los platos a los cient\u00edficos. Como toda historia encierra sus paradojas, hoy es el d\u00eda del investigador cient\u00edfico, porque un 10 de abril de 1887 nac\u00eda en Buenos Aires Bernardo Houssay, quien por sus investigaciones sobre el papel que desempe\u00f1an las hormonas pituitarias en la regulaci\u00f3n de la cantidad de az\u00facar en sangre, fue galardonado con el Premio Nobel en Medicina en 1947. Fue el primer latinoamericano meritoriamente reconocido en ciencias. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La sociedad argentina, su responsabilidad ante la cuarentena y su dirigencia son observadas por el mundo por el modo en que viene repeliendo este fen\u00f3meno sanitario. Seamos conscientes de ello para que podamos ver el bosque y no nos quedemos solamente con los \u00e1rboles que aparecen por delante.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>El autor es abogado de la ciudad de Santa Fe y docente universitario.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Por Ad\u00e1n Costa.- Si pongo a un empleado en la puerta de una f\u00e1brica de autos a contar patentes de [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,49,5],"tags":[4806],"class_list":["post-6549","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cultura-y-sociedad","category-medio-ambiente","category-politica","tag-datos-sobre-la-pandemia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.2 - 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