{"id":21584,"date":"2023-05-19T23:06:03","date_gmt":"2023-05-20T02:06:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sabado100.com.ar\/?p=21584"},"modified":"2023-05-19T23:06:03","modified_gmt":"2023-05-20T02:06:03","slug":"hiper-la-palabra-maldita","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sabado100.com.ar\/es-ar\/hiper-la-palabra-maldita\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u00edper, la palabra maldita…"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Por Jorge Lanata.-<\/strong> \u00abLa posibilidad de una h\u00edper es hoy de un 30%\u00bb,\u00a0le dijo a sus clientes uno de los economistas mas respetados y de m\u00e1s bajo perfil del pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Otro economista, en este caso de uno de los principales bancos del pa\u00eds, coment\u00f3 en su \u00faltimo informe que ese escenario es probable en un 25%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abLas condiciones est\u00e1n\u00bb<\/strong>, ampli\u00f3. Y dio detalles: \u00abNo hay credibilidad en el Gobierno, hay d\u00e9ficit fiscal, hay desbalance monetario porque hay muchos pesos y nadie los quiere y no hay anclas nominales. Ser\u00eda una h\u00edper ‘moderna’<\/strong>, con una inflaci\u00f3n de dos d\u00edgitos altos por mes\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cuando otro economista, en este caso Ramiro Casti\u00f1eira, analiza las medidas tomadas por Massa despu\u00e9s del anuncio del 8,4% de inflaci\u00f3n de abril cae en la cuenta que el total de pesos emitidos es el 11% del PBI. Y hace la suma: 2% del PBI por financiar al fisco, 7% del PBI por pagar intereses de las Leliqs y otro 2% del PBI por comprar d\u00f3lares a p\u00e9rdida con el d\u00f3lar soja. Y vuelve a mencionar la palabra maldita<\/strong>: \u00abUna emisi\u00f3n de esta magnitud solo se vio en la previa del Rodrigazo y en la previa de la h\u00edper\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para Econom\u00e9trica con esta cantidad de pesos \u00abel 57% de los dep\u00f3sitos est\u00e1n invertidos en Leliqs y si se suma la compra de t\u00edtulos p\u00fablicos por parte de los bancos se llega a que el 70% del ahorro se dedica exclusivamente a financiar al Estado\u00bb. Y todo esto sucede sin un d\u00f3lar en el Central.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El llamado \u201cd\u00f3lar de convertibilidad\u201d (que se calcula viendo la relaci\u00f3n entre los pesos en circulaci\u00f3n y las reservas) estuvo a $ 420 en diciembre pasado y hoy -seg\u00fan Fernando Marull- esta en $ 601.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abLo que nos preocupa, lo que est\u00e1 en nuestro radar es el escenario post PASO<\/strong>\u00ab, le dice a Clar\u00edn<\/strong> un intendente del 2\u00b0 cord\u00f3n del Conurbano. \u00abO sea, qu\u00e9 puede pasar despu\u00e9s de agosto. Y no nos preocupa lo social, porque hay una red de contenci\u00f3n, sino la econom\u00eda\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abSi la inflaci\u00f3n es 8% por mes de ac\u00e1 a diciembre firmo ya\u00bb<\/strong>, le dice a este diario un colaborador de Kicillof. \u00abSin d\u00f3lares estamos regalados para otra corrida y una devaluaci\u00f3n ser\u00eda game over\u00bb, <\/em>agrega.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abEs raro lo que pasa\u00bb, se extra\u00f1a el intendente de un basti\u00f3n peronista. \u00abHay empresarios que me llaman y me dicen que va a explotar todo. Pero en la calle la vida sigue, la gente se acostumbr\u00f3 a vivir con inflaci\u00f3n y desorden<\/strong>. Parece que da lo mismo 6 u 8% de inflaci\u00f3n mensual, est\u00e1 todo el mundo como alienado. El quilombo puede empezar ahora con las organizaciones sociales por los armados de listas: si los cagan ah\u00ed si puede haber un escenario de mayor conflictividad\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En la Provincia, los datos explican por qu\u00e9 la p\u00f3lvora esta mojada<\/strong>: es la provincia que m\u00e1s asistencia recibe del Gobierno nacional. En los 24 partidos que forman el Conurbano bonaerense viven 10,8 millones de personas y hay m\u00e1s de1.200.000 anotados en el Registro de Trabajadores de la Econom\u00eda Popular.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Veamos solo tres programas de asistencia:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

* 1.631.923 chicos bonaerenses reciben la AUH (Asignaci\u00f3n Universal por Hijo)<\/strong> lo que representa el 40% del total de la AUH a nivel nacional. Son $ 11.465 pesos por cada hijo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

* Hay 624.487 beneficiarios del Plan Potenciar Trabajo<\/strong> (la mitad de este tipo de planes en el pa\u00eds). Desde diciembre de 2019 hasta hoy se pusieron por este programa $ 421.314.006.790 s\u00f3lo en la Provincia. Se paga por este plan $ 42.256.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

* La Tarjeta Alimentar<\/strong> para comprar comida se entrega a 1.501.005 destinatarios. Dependiendo de la cantidad de hijos, va de $ 17.000 a $ 34.000 por mes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Axel dispuso para este a\u00f1o un gasto mayor para los municipios: $ 45.000 millones m\u00e1s<\/strong> para proyectos de vialidad, agua y cloacas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Con tanto dinero lloviendo en la calle, la preocupaci\u00f3n del Gobierno provincial es la elecci\u00f3n: Kicillof habl\u00f3 con Cristina del desdoblamiento<\/strong> y ella le dijo que, por las dudas, lo prepare. Su idea ser\u00eda hacer las elecciones el 1\u00b0 de octubre, para lo cual el llamado deber\u00eda hacerse el 3 de julio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cristina \u00c1lvarez Rodr\u00edguez ya empez\u00f3 a trabajar en las licitaciones y el proceso de armado. Todo depende de la decisi\u00f3n que tome Cristina<\/strong>. Y nadie sabe cual ser\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fuente:<\/strong> https:\/\/www.clarin.com\/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

… y la monta\u00f1a de plata que recibe la Provincia para que la inflaci\u00f3n no se note. Distintos economistas ven un escenario similar, incluso con alta inflaci\u00f3n durante varios meses. La \u00abp\u00f3lvora mojada\u00bb, el papel de los movimientos sociales y la charla entre Kicillof y Cristina para desdoblar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":21585,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,5],"tags":[1369],"class_list":["post-21584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia","category-politica","tag-la-palabra-maldita"],"yoast_head":"\nH\u00edper, la palabra maldita... - Sabado 100<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sabado100.com.ar\/es-ar\/hiper-la-palabra-maldita\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"H\u00edper, la palabra maldita... - Sabado 100\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"... y la monta\u00f1a de plata que recibe la Provincia para que la inflaci\u00f3n no se note. 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